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The following papers are provided in Adobe® PDF format.

Cyber First Aid: Proactive Decision Making

Public and private organizations need a robust approach to prepare, respond, and recover from cyber attacks. This article entitled “Cyber first aid: proactive risk management and decision-making outlines an approach called Cyber First AID—adaptable, integrated, and deliberate.

The decision gym: decision insurance for organizations

Conducting decision calisthenics can help and organization win competitive advantage through harnessing its tremendous knowledge, imagination, and staff experience.

Achieving Narrative Superiority to Succeed in Afghanistan

As President Obama and President Karzai met in Washington, DC in May 2010, it was important for both leaders to recognize they are part of a powerful narrative. Their ability to clearly communicate their vision and to inspire their respective constituencies will determine how history treats their legacies.

Making an Afghanistan-Pakistan Strategy Decision in a Flawed System

President Obama is faced with an important decision outlining the Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy. It would help if he had a vision for success. In his 2008 presidential campaign President Obama learned a hopeful vision was more compelling to voters than articulating the ills of the Bush administration. He needs to transfer this knowledge to the current Afghanistan-Pakistan debate.

The Utility of Force

Talk sponsored by Idea Sciences at the Army & Navy Club.

General Sir Rupert Smith argues that the nature of our operations today and in the future are fundamentally of a different nature to those of the past and for which our institutions have developed to conduct successfully. He calls this form or model of war, War Amongst the People, in contrast to the past Industrial Wars. The essential difference is that military force is no longer used to decide the matter but to create a condition in which the strategic result is achieved by other means; the strategic object being to alter the opponent's intentions rather than to destroy him. As a result we do not move in the linear process of Peace — Crisis — War — Resolution — Peace, that our institutions have evolved to manage to advantage. Now we are in a world of continual Confrontations and Conflicts in which the military acts in the Conflict support the achievement of the desired outcome to the Confrontation by other means; such as diplomatic, economic, political, and legal measures.

Arizona and New York Schools Push the Envelope

Published in Perspectives on Performance, Volume 5; Issue 2 - October 2006.

Accountability measures from the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) legislation have opened K-12 educators to the use of increasingly sophisticated improvement tools and processes. In this paper we give a brief overview of the use of frontier analysis (data envelopment analysis) to promote school improvement in Arizona and New York State.

Speed Confrontation Management™

Confrontation Management is a technique for persuading others to want what you want. It is mathematically-based and supported by a range of powerful analytical tools, including Options Boards, Tugs of War, etc.

However, those new to Confrontation Management occassionally express concern that there is a steep learning curve involved in mastering the associated theory, processes, tools and software. This short article, in response to that concern, demonstrates how you can develop the essential skills required to use Confrontation Management within an afternoon.

Victor Svetlov has produced a Russian translation of this paper.

Modeling confrontations using Options Boards

Options Boards are the main analytical tools for modeling confrontations and, consequently, developing courses of action for "winning" confrontations. While confrontations can be modeled less formally, applying the basic concepts in a conversational form, the use of Options Boards brings rigor to the process and minimizes the potential for ambiguity and misunderstanding.

This paper provides a brief introduction to the use of Options Boards. Some background knowledge of Confrontation Management™ is assumed.

Absolving the Sin of Collaboration

The Roman philosopher Seneca claimed that "every sin is the result of a collaboration". Maybe, two millennia on, with the advent of the Internet, he would have tempered his views on collaboration. Then again, maybe not.

Despite continued industry hype around developments in collaboration technologies, it is not clear that much progress has been made beyond e-mail. With the advent of collaboration technologies one might have expected a surge in creative thought and knowledge share.

This paper, written for "Inside Collaboration" (collaborate.com), considers why modern collaboration technologies have failed to deliver on their promises and introduces the concept of "Question Management" as a potential solution.

How to assess an exit strategy: Measures of Merit for compliance

In order to exit from a theater such as Iraq, where the objective is to ensure a secure environment, it is necessary to change the intentions of non-compliant parties. Relying on indices such as numbers of incidents/fatalities is not enough; only parties’ intentions can tell us whether the environment is likely to deteriorate after the military force has left.

A plan for achieving compliant intentions is implemented first and foremost by the "Commander as Shooter" (or "Commander at the Edge"). Line commanders at each level have to work with civilian agencies to put pressure on non-compliant parties at their level. They do this by interacting personally (or through their immediate delegates) both with representatives of civilian agencies and with non-compliant parties.

A system for Command and Control of Confronting and Collaborating, or a C2CC system, supports joint strategy formation and implementation by a coalition of the International Community. This paper discusses valid Measures of Merit for such a system, and applies them to a fictitious example based on experience in NATO exercises.

No Organization Left Behind — "Mass Market" Data Envelopment Analysis

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a powerful tool for benchmarking against best practices and identifying organizational inefficiencies. However, while the approach’s profile has been raised considerably over the past decade, it has failed to capture the attention of the majority of the potential users.

This paper explores some of the barriers to "mainstream" adoption of DEA. In doing so, it draws on personal experience of applying DEA in organizations, working with DEA practitioners and, most importantly, teaching DEA in government and commercial organizations.

"COM as Shooter" — Operational Planning using C2 for Confronting and Collaborating

This paper describes the use of a restricted C2 system for Confronting and Collaborating within the Operational Planning Process. It describes some enhancements to Confrontation and Collaboration Analysis (CCA) and introduces the idea of "Commander as Shooter" (or "Commander at the Edge") — a reference to the fact that commanders must directly (and personally) engage the enemy in Peace and Stabilization Operations.

The conflict in the Middle East is used to illustrate some of the concepts.

Improving Requirements Elicitation and Synthesis Using Group Decision Support and Virtual Teams

This paper describes a methodology for improving the elicitation and synthesis of systems requirements using group decision support and virtual teams. An approach to implementing this methodology using two of the premiere tools in their respective genres is also provided. Use of the methodology and tools presented in this paper provides the means for improving the speed and cost-effectiveness of requirements development, while achieving greater consensus and more accurately representing the needs of the organization and individual users. This approach is particularly relevant in highly-decentralized and geographically-dispersed organizations.

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